Today, many people prefer to keep cash at home "under their pillow" because of heightened anxiety: the covid crisis has provoked a growing distrust of banks. Whether it is worth fearing a full-scale financial collapse and in what currency is it better to keep your savings, the Prime agency figured out.
November became a month of surprises for the ruble - its rate strengthened by 6 rubles against the dollar during the month. However, by the end of the month, the collapse of markets and geopolitical turmoil dropped it again to the level of 76 rubles per dollar. Many analysts expect a correction, but keeping all savings in one currency is not worth it - even if the forecasts for it are the most favorable.
DIVIDE AND RULE
Diversification is always important in investing, said Elena Belyaeva, an analyst at Freedom Finance. She proposed the following scheme: divide the accumulated amount into approximately three equal parts, then invest two parts in dollars and euros, and leave the third in rubles.
"The result may not be the best possible, but this option has a beneficial effect on the nervous system - you do not need to follow the rate changes and constantly run to the bank, changing one currency for another - the currently growing currency is in the portfolio anyway," - noted Belyaeva.
The analyst explained that the trend of the ruble strengthening from 80 to 70 rubles, observed since October last year, was in fact a correction to the previous decline. Most likely, it is not worth expecting a decrease in the value of the dollar below 70 rubles in the foreseeable future
The success of the ruble was primarily due to the rise in oil prices and the temporary decline in the dollar index. She warned that raising US inflation to 30-year highs, starting to wind down stimulus programs from the Fed, and anticipating the start of a cycle of higher interest rates would further push the dollar's value against its major currencies.
the ruble will be present in the basket in any case, since without any hedging costs, the ruble share of foreign exchange savings can be parked in OFZs, bonds of some reliable corporate issuers, and so on," agrees Mikhail Shulgin, head of the Otkrytie Investments global research department. He believes that, just like investing effectively in a stock portfolio in the stock market, savings should be kept in a basket of currencies.
According to the expert, everything here depends on the investment horizons and understanding of the risk of a situation when money may be suddenly needed urgently, which implies the sale of an asset.
EQUALIZED PER DOLLAR
The second currency in the portfolio of an ordinary should be the dollar. It sounds corny, but in our opinion, changes in rate differentials will be one of the key topics in the markets in 2022. The Fed has announced the start of cutting stimulus, it may begin to cut monthly bond purchases at an accelerated pace and more quickly enter the cycle of monetary policy normalization.
History signals that the dollar is often strengthening ahead of the start of a rate hike. "In our opinion, the US currency retains growth potential against most of its main competitors. We do not exclude that in the coming weeks the market may start to price not even the fact of raising interest rates in the US, but more aggressive rates of monetary policy tightening," Shulgin says.
There are no reasons for the growth of the euro against the dollar: the viral situation, new lockdowns and fears of the spread of the omicron strain are negative for the economies of European countries, and the Central Bank of the eurozone does not plan to raise interest rates yet, but everything may change. "In any case, the long-term trend in the value of the euro in rubles remains upward," the analyst said.
RUNNING TO THE SHELTER
It is worth diluting the basket, which includes the ruble and the dollar, with the Swiss franc - this is one of the popular safe-haven assets with which you can hedge against market volatility and potential additional headwinds from the ongoing pandemic.
Thus, the news that the World Health Organization (WHO) is convening an emergency meeting to evaluate the new variant of coronavirus B.1.1.529, identified in South Africa, led to a sharp decline in global stock markets and commodity assets on November 26. At this point, the owners of safe haven assets, if not earned, then at least not lost.
On the other hand, if the appetite in the financial markets remains high, stocks go up and oil prices go up. Then many investors hedge their long positions in risky assets with the franc. The franc looks attractive against the euro or the Japanese yen, so we would recommend adding it to the currency portfolio, Shulgin argues.
The ratio of the shares in the basket could theoretically be as follows: 25% - Swiss franc, 40% - ruble, 35% - US dollar.
In general, experts are confident that the basket of currencies should perform, first of all, a saving function, and the possibility of speculation fades into the background. There are more suitable assets for this. In other words, the initial goal is not to lose, and then, if possible, make money.
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